A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
